To some extent it has become the forgotten war. Russia’s outrageous attack on Ukraine almost three years ago dominated the headlines for the first few months – news anchors positioned themselves on the rooftops to report the conflict and foreign correspondents put life and limb at risk to report from the front line.
We all learned to pronounce its capital ‘Keyve’ rather than the Russian ‘Key-ef’, and Volodymyr Zelensky emerged as a leader of exceptional courage.
In electing a stand-up comedian to the highest office, Ukrainians had unwittingly picked out a president who will go down in history as a champion of his people.
And the Ukrainian people rose to the challenge too. Their courage arrested the advance of a superpower which believed it would march unhindered to the Ukrainian capital.
But as time has passed, Ukraine has slipped down the news agendas. The news anchors have moved on and to an extent the world has moved on too, leaving Zelensky fighting to defend his country with one hand tied behind his back.
Just ahead of the third anniversary of the invasion – February 2025 – Joe Biden will hand power to Donald Trump. We know where Trump sits. He is one of Putin’s western acolytes, and heads a party which has done all it can to undermine the United States’ support for Ukraine.
Britain (a country currently focusing on how it can best get into bed with Trump) has also seen regime change. Zelensky has been critical of Keir Starmer’s approach. The Labour government, he says, has not been as supportive as its predecessor – one tick at least there for Rishi Sunak.
We are now at that stage in the conflict, articulated in 1938 by Neville Chamberlain, where Putin’s attack on Ukraine is being seen by some in the west as a “quarrel in a far away country, between people of who we know nothing”.
It is a disgrace that we have reached this stage, and the failure to properly support Ukraine in its unequal battle with Russia will be one of the main stains on Biden’s record as president.
His decision on Sunday to allow Ukraine to use US-made rockets to fire into Russian territory has come very late in the day, and appears to fall short of Ukraine’s needs.
As the wave of attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure at the weekend revealed, Putin knows his target is on the back foot. Hampered still by the west’s restrictions on the availability and use of defensive weapons, Zelensky’s window of opportunity is very tight. Trump will shut it fast.
Nobody wants to see an escalation of the conflict. We are dealing here with real lives lost – Ukrainian civilians, its dogged army and, let’s not forget, the misfortunate Russian conscripts who have been sent to fight a war they did not want.
But there has been escalation – driven by Moscow – most recently through the deployment of troops from North Korea.
Ukraine’s position has been weakened by so-called allies scared of Putin, an aggressor who, we know, has his sights on other sovereign nations that were once part of the Soviet Union.
The parallels with events a century ago are clear to see: an expansionist dictator intent on reuniting the ‘fatherland’ on the one hand; and on the other, a divided and frightened global community which is incapable of responding in a real and meaningful way – until the wolf arrives at its own door.
We know from history that appeasement does not work, that bullies like Putin do not back down unless they are confronted, and that if aggression is not checked, there is a strong likelihood that you will be the next victim.
At the weekend, Biden met Chinese president Xi Jinping during his ‘farewell tour’. It would be surprising if he did not tip him off this change was coming.
A global conflict is not in China’s interest. Is it possible Biden’s decision will concentrate minds and reinforce the need for peace talks? Only time will tell.
Zelensky, who must have been appalled at the outcome of the US election but cannot say so, has signalled he is willing to talk. At the weekend he said: “From our side, we must do everything so that this war ends next year, through diplomatic means.”
Putin’s strategy was to continue the war of attrition – more missile attacks and further advances within Ukraine with the help of North Korean troops – while waiting on Trump’s arrival in the White House and the imposition of a deal between Washington and Moscow, above the Ukrainian government’s head.
Any negotiations must be between Ukraine and Russia.
If Trump is at the table, it will be on Russia’s side.