About a year ago, Sinn Féin was riding very high in opinion polls in the south and there was even talk of either being strong enough to form a government which excluded both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, or being a key player in a coalition which included one or both of those parties.
That’s the sort of scenario that spooks most of unionism and loyalism, because it fears that a strong Sinn Féin presence in an Irish government increases the chances of a border poll sooner rather than later.
Yet for all the talk from the usual unionist sources about how the pro-union numbers would dwarf the pro-Irish unity numbers, there remains a remarkable reluctance to put that belief to the test.
Unionism cheered up a bit when the results of the Irish local and Euro elections saw a whopping crash for Sinn Féin: the sort of crash which would, if it were repeated, push the party into a tireless limbo on the Dáil’s opposition benches.
But even when a general election was called just over three weeks ago, there was still a fear that Sinn Féin would do better than expected and spring a bigger surprise than the one it sprang four years ago.
Half-way through the count last Sunday, though, unionism was remarkably happy. And yes, it is capable of happiness!
Sinn Féin was headed for the opposition benches because it hadn’t come close to the breakthrough it had dreamed of last year.
Fair enough, it had done a lot better than the earlier elections, but not nearly enough to prevent the return of the same-old, same-old establishment coalition.
Which means that the border poll stuff is going to remain on the back burner for at least another four years.
And here’s the reality that Sinn Féin needs to face: however much it prioritises reunification in southern elections and in its general party policy, it is still failing to gather the numbers to put a border poll front and centre of an Irish programme for government.
And that’s because there are a host of other problems which the electorate wants dealt with first.
The same-old, same-old coalition parties did include throwaway references to unity in their manifestoes, but not one paragraph carried the suggestion that they were actually serious about it.
I did think that Fine Gael might have picked up on the sort of pro-unity vehicle which Leo Varadkar seems to have been hinting at since he stepped down as taoiseach, but, for whatever reason, it chose not to go there.
Fianna Fáil still ploughed the all-island unit furrow, but again, without any noticeable sign of immediacy or enthusiasm.
So, here’s a question: apart from Sinn Féin – which hasn’t got the numbers – which party in the south really takes unity seriously?
There’s not much interest from the electorate, either; and even those who do support it in opinion polls tend to fall out with each other when it comes to defining what price they are prepared to pay for unity.
Push the politicians and most will seek refuge in the Augustinian doctrine: unity sometime, but not right now.
Even on this side of the border, the ‘border poll now’ electoral/political voice is mostly limited to Sinn Féin – and, to a lesser extent, the SDLP. Between them, they account for 38%.
Yes, I can hear you yelling at the paper right now: “But the unionist parties are nowhere near the 50% + 1 they need to bank a border poll victory.”
I accept that. But I still contend that the figures on both sides of the border do not stack up to a persuasive argument in favour of a poll on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland.
Sinn Féin would never have been given the imprimatur to nod through the Good Friday Agreement if a border poll had not been part of the deal. And Sinn Féin expected to be much further down the path to securing that poll than it is now.
So, here’s another question: why has Sinn Féin failed to make the only progress that actually matters to it?
Yes, it is the largest party in Northern Ireland. And yes, that fact annoys the hell out of unionists.
But, let’s be honest, being First Minister in the assembly and worrying unionists (who are easily worried, anyway) is not the same as being on the cusp of Irish unity.
Being stuck on the Dáil’s back benches for another few years is the very definition of no progress for unity.
Maybe Sinn Féin needs to face the reality that it has failed and is continuing to fail to sell the unity project to many voters outside its core base.
Maybe it needs to accept that it is hindering rather than helping the aspiration of ‘a nation once again’?