Two weeks out from US Election Day, the crisis in the Middle East is looming over the race for the White House, with Kamala Harris struggling to find the right words to navigate its difficult cross-currents, while her opponent Donald Trump makes bold pronouncements that the age-old conflict can quickly be set right.
US Vice President Ms Harris has been painstakingly — and not always successfully — trying to balance talk of strong support for Israel with harsh condemnations of civilian casualties among Palestinians and others caught up in Israel’s wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Former president Donald Trump, for his part, insists that none of this would have happened on his watch and that he can make it all go away if elected.
Both of them are bidding for the votes of Arab and Muslim American voters and Jewish voters, particularly in extremely tight races in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Over the weekend, Ms Harris alternately drew praise and criticism over her comments about a pro-Palestinian protester that were captured on a widely shared video.
Some took Ms Harris’ remark that the protester’s concerns were “real” to be an expression of agreement with his description of Israel’s conduct as “genocide”.
That drew sharp condemnation from Israel’s former ambassador to the US, Michael Oren.
But Ms Harris’ campaign said that while she was agreeing more generally about the plight of civilians in Gaza, she was not and would not accuse Israel of genocide.
A day earlier, the dynamics were reversed when Ms Harris told reporters that the “first and most tragic story” of the conflict was the October 7 Hamas attack last year that killed about 1,200 Israelis.
That remark triggered anger among those who feel she is not giving proper weight to the deaths of more than 41,000 Palestinians in Gaza during the latest conflict.
Mr Trump, meanwhile, has participated in interviews with Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya and Lebanese outlet MTV, where he promised to bring about peace and said “things will turn out very well” in Lebanon.
In a post on his social media platform on Monday, he predicted a Harris presidency would only make matters worse in the Middle East.
Mr Trump posted: “If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames, and your kids will be going off to War, maybe even a Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J Trump in charge.
“For our Country’s sake, and for your kids, Vote Trump for PEACE!”
Ms Harris’ position is particularly awkward because as Vice President she is tethered to President Joe Biden’s foreign policy decisions even as she has tried to strike a more empathetic tone to all parties.
But her aides and allies are also frustrated with what they see as Mr Trump largely getting a pass on some of his unpredictable foreign policy statements.
“It’s the very thoughtful, very careful school versus the showboat,” said James Zogby, founder and president of the Arab American Institute, who has endorsed Ms Harris.
“That does become a handicap in these late stages when he’s making all these overtures. When the bill comes due they’re going to walk away empty-handed, but by then it’ll be too late.”
The political divisions on the campaign trail augur potentially significant implications after Election Day as major powers in the region, particularly Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, monitor the outcome and its potential to cause shifts to American foreign policy.
A new AP-NORC poll finds that neither Mr Trump nor Ms Harris has a clear political advantage on the situation in the Middle East. About four in 10 registered voters say Mr Trump would do a better job, while a similar share say that about Ms Harris. Roughly two in 10 say neither candidate would do a better job.
There are some signs of weakness on the issue for Ms Harris within her own party, however. Only about two-thirds of Democratic voters say she would be the better candidate to handle the situation in the Middle East. Among Republicans, about eight in 10 say Mr Trump would be better.
In Michigan, which has the nation’s largest concentration of Arab Americans, the Israel-Hamas war has profound and personal impacts on the community. In addition to many community members having family in both Lebanon and Gaza, Kamel Ahmad Jawad, a metro Detroit resident, was killed while trying to deliver aid to his hometown in southern Lebanon.
The war’s direct impact on the community has fuelled outrage and calls for the US to demand an unconditional ceasefire and impose a weapons embargo on Israel.
Although both parties have largely supported Israel, much of the outrage and blame has been directed at Mr Biden. When Ms Harris entered the race, many Arab American leaders initially felt a renewed sense of optimism, citing her past comments and the early outreach efforts of her campaign.
It was my Great Honor to host the 11th Hour Faith Leaders Meeting in North Carolina tonight—THANK YOU! pic.twitter.com/GDFXUWtxLq
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2024
However, that optimism quickly faded as the community perceived that she had not sufficiently distanced her policies from those of Mr Biden.
Future Coalition PAC, a super PAC backed by billionaire Elon Musk, is running ads in Arab American communities in Michigan focused on Ms Harris’ support for Israel, complete with a photo of her and her husband, Doug Emhoff, who is Jewish.
The same group is sending the opposite message to Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, attacking her support for the withholding of some weapons from Israel — a Biden administration move to pressure the longtime US ally to limit civilian casualties.
Harris spokesperson Morgan Finkelstein cast Mr Trump’s approach toward the Middle East as part of a broader sign that “an unchecked, unhinged Trump is simply too dangerous — he would bring us right back to the chaotic, go-it-alone approach that made the world less safe and he would weaken America”.
