Teenagers are waking up to their GCSE results in a year when grading is expected to be restored to pre-pandemic levels in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Hundreds of thousands of pupils are receiving grades to help them progress on to sixth form, college or training.
Teenagers could face more competition for sixth form and college places this year due a rising number of 16-year-olds in the population, leaders in the education sector have suggested.
Capacity issues in some areas of the country amid rising demand could mean some colleges will not have space to take on students, the chief executive of the Association of Colleges (AoC) has warned.
Last year, more than one in five (22%) UK GCSE entries was awarded a top grade, compared with 26.3% in 2022.
But it was higher than in 2019 – the last year that summer exams were taken before Covid-19 – when 20.8% UK GCSE entries in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were awarded a 7/A or above.
In England, exams regulator Ofqual has said it expects this year’s national results to be “broadly similar” to last summer, when grades were brought back in line with pre-pandemic levels.
In Wales and Northern Ireland, exam regulators are aiming to return to pre-pandemic grading this summer – a year later than in England.
The move comes after Covid-19 led to an increase in top GCSE and A-level grades in 2020 and 2021, with results based on teacher assessments instead of exams.
But last week, the proportion of A-level entries awarded top grades surpassed pre-pandemic highs.
Many of the pupils who are receiving their GCSE results were in Year 7 when schools closed due to the pandemic. The cohort faced disruption to their schooling in the first years of their secondary education.
Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, told the PA news agency: “GCSE grades in 2024 will be marked by familiar divides in results between under-resourced pupils and their more privileged peers, manifested in both national and regional inequalities.
“It is likely that competition for sixth-form places will be even more intense this year given the rising number of 16-year-olds taking GCSEs.
“The concern is that pupils face a lottery in the chances of securing places at sixth forms and colleges across the country.”
Bill Watkin, chief executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association (SFCA), told PA: “It’s likely that there’ll be more competition to get a sixth form place.”
He said: “There is still going to be pressure on places because the number of new places created is less than the number of additional young people working their way through the system at the moment.”
Youngsters across the country will also be awarded their level 2 vocational and technical qualification (VTQ) exam results on Thursday.
When asked whether there could be more competition for places, David Hughes, chief executive of the Association of Colleges (AoC), said capacity issues were “acute” in a few areas – including Leeds.
He said: “It’s not just the overall cohort of 16-year-olds has gone up, but more of them are looking to do technical and vocational qualifications because they want stuff that really works in the labour market.”
The AoC is calling on the Government to give colleges in-year funding to ensure they can recruit more students to start courses in September.
Mr Hughes added: “We are worried that we’re getting to a point where in some places they simply won’t have the capacity, they won’t have the space, to take on students.”
Leaders in the education sector have warned that the cohort of young people receiving their GCSE results have had to overcome a series of challenges in their secondary schooling following the pandemic.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said: “These pupils have shown remarkable resilience and determination, defying unprecedented disruption throughout the pandemic, Raac and strike action.
“From A-levels and T-levels to apprenticeships, they now have an exciting range of options available to them.
“We know this week’s results are likely to show the same unacceptable, entrenched regional disparities we have seen time and time again.
“That is why we are committed to breaking down barriers to opportunity – including by delivering a broader, richer curriculum – and ensuring that young people in all corners of our country can reach their potential.”
Sarah Hannafin, head of policy at the NAHT school leaders’ union, said: “The students who are getting their results have had a rough ride.
“Year 7 is always a big year for young people making that transition from primary to secondary and obviously their first couple of years in secondary school were really disrupted with lockdowns and remote learning and all the things that came with it.
“They went through Covid and we’ve then had the cost-of-living crisis and all of the problems that have come with that. They’ve had some real challenges in their secondary school career.”
More students have been applying to sit their exams in smaller rooms away from the main exam hall since Covid-19 due to anxiety, it has been suggested.
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said: “The levels of anxiety exhibited by students in the run-in to these exams – in what was the end of Year 11 for them – was heightened much more than we have ever seen before.”
In Wales High School in Rotherham – where Mr Di’Iasio used to be headteacher – more students sat their GCSEs outside the main exam hall than in the exam hall for the first time this year.
He said: “This is post-pandemic. It’s certainly growing, it’s certainly a trend that I am seeing across lots of schools.”
