Whatever the spin, Sinn Féin will be disappointed with the outcome of the Republic’s general election. Relative to where Mary Lou McDonald’s party was a matter of weeks ago, it made a promising recovery, but compared to how Sinn Féin was polling mid-2022, the slump has been spectacular.
While in theory at least, its 37 seats mean could they still be a partner in the next coalition government, there’s little realistic prospect of that.
A senior Fianna Fáil source told The Irish News that Micheál Martin was clear during the campaign that going into government with Sinn Féin was out of the question.
“It’s policy, not personal,” the source said.
“Pro-enterprise, pro-European, believe in home ownership... those are the principles of the parties that can form a government.”
Derek Mooney, a former Fianna Fáil special adviser who quit the party over its decision to go into government with Fine Gael, says a partnership with Sinn Féin at present is impossible because the latter “spent the past four years painting Fianna Fáil into a corner”.
“Fianna Fáil isn’t going to come back and thank Sinn Féin for that, and rescue them in the process,” he says.
“On top of that, Fianna Fáil has been explicit about ruling out a coalition with Sinn Féin – and it’s more than just Micheál Martin, it’s now gone right through the party.”
Mr Mooney says he argued that Micheál Martin “made a mistake” by ruling out a coalition with Sinn Féin ahead of the election.
“I think he should have given Fianna Fáil some leverage with Fine Gael but it’s turned out that Micheál’s strategy was the right one, because the one thing he was betting on is that his party would have a few more seats and therefore he would have the upper hand,” he says.
While all commentators rule out any coupling in the immediate future, it’s argued by some that Sinn Féin will be forced to countenance a future coalition with Fianna Fáil.
“As long as politics in the south remains the same, with the three parties roughly on 20% of the vote, there is no pathway to government for any of them without at least two of the three going into government together,” says Slugger O’Toole deputy editor David McCann.
“So for all the talk of FFG {the pejorative term for the two Treaty parties’ close relationship}, Sinn Féin need to think about how they how they break the link between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with wooing the former the most realistic option.”
Derek Mooney believes that in order to make the breakthrough into government Sinn Féin must first drive a wedge between the Treaty parties.
“That’s going to take time and will probably take a new leadership. In fact, it will take a considerable new leadership – just moving from Mary Lou McDonald to Pearse Doherty isn’t going to do it,” he says.
“I think they need to then engage as a more positive opposition, rather than we oppose everything.”
Mr Mooney forecasts a “slow reset and a change of tone” from Sinn Féin under new leadership.
He argues that this will involve Sinn Féin acknowledging the ties between its historic figures and those in Fianna Fáil.
The former special adviser believes electoral success for both parties lies in striking the correct balance between being “slightly left of centre on economic issues and slightly right of centre on social issues”, or what he terms “blue labour”.
Irish News columnist Chris Donnelly doesn’t think Sinn Féin needs to shift itself politically to make a partnership with Fianna Fáil a reality but instead argues it’s just a matter of time before the opportunity presents itself.
He believes that while Micheál Martin is an impediment to any immediate coupling, his successor will be more amenable. The one-time Sinn Féin election candidate also argues that the electorate will grow weary of the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael partnership, leaving both them with no other option in future than to seek an alternative coalition partner.
“Change is a powerful message in any society, particularly when Fine Gael have will have been in power for 18 years by the time the next election comes around,” he says.
“So Sinn Féin need to learn their own lessons from the last couple of years but they have solid ground to stand on, and I think if they get an uptick in the polls and it’s sustained, then I certainly cannot see Fianna Fáil ruling out coalition with Sinn Féin at that point.”
