Loyalist ceasefire 30 years on: Co-author of new report on paramilitarism believes ‘transition’ of UVF and UDA could finally occur within five years

One of the authors of a new report on ending loyalist paramilitarism says he believes the 30th anniversary of the UVF and UDA ceasefires could be the last major milestone during which the groups still exist as active organisations.

Dr John Kyle, the former deputy leader of the UVF-linked Progressive Unionist Party, is part of the Northern Ireland Development Group, a pro-union think tank that this week published its ‘Reframing the Debate’ document, that contains a series of recommendations on how loyalist paramilitary organisations can leave the stage.

It has been published ahead of Sunday’s 30th anniversary of the ceasefire announced in 1994 by the Combined Loyalist Military Command, representing the UVF, UDA and Red Hand Commandos (RHC).

Led by the late UVF leader Gusty Spence, the umbrella group’s statement came six months after the Provisional IRA ceasefire, and pledged the loyalist paramilitary groups would “universally cease all operational hostilities” after decades of bloodshed that saw over 1,000 people killed by the organisations.

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However, more than 50 people have been murdered by loyalist paramilitaries in the years since, while the UVF and UDA continue to recruit and retain command structures.

There has been frustration over the length of the “transition” process for the groups three decades on from the ceasefire, and anger against the Loyalist Communities Council, which represents the UVF, UDA and RHC, and which in recent weeks has met with DUP ministers to discuss issues affecting loyalist communities.

This week a series of events have taken place to mark Sunday’s anniversary, including panel discussions and an exhibition in east Belfast hosted by the Legacy Network group.

A new documentary on late former PUP leader David Ervine, who was pivotal in achieving the loyalist ceasefires, was also screened this week on RTÉ and is now available to view on the RTÉ Player.

Dr John Kyle, who sits on the Northern Ireland Development Group alongside members including former UUP candidate Trevor Ringland, said he believes loyalist paramilitary groups could be disbanded within five years.

“It’s impossible to know when the exact end point will be, and many of us are disappointed that paramilitary organisations still exist today, but considerable work is being done - major progress in terms of building on what was envisaged in the ceasefire and renewing communities, but there’s a lot of work to do,” he told the Irish News.

The Reframing the Debate document recommends the paramilitary groups give a “collective public commitment” on efforts to disband, including ending recruitment and rejecting all criminality, but also on efforts for the “social transformation” of the groups, including the founding of a “designated task force” to work alongside elected unionist representatives in boosting communities.

“There’s a fresh imperative to finish the job, to see what Gusty Spence and David Ervine hoped for accomplished in the near future,” Dr Kyle said.

“I think we could see these groups having fully left the stage within five years, as there is no real need or justification for their existence. There are still a few obstacles to them leaving, rooted in deprivation within communities, but there is a way forward, and it requires patience. I understand people will be frustrated with how long it’s taking, but there are people within loyalism, including ex-combatants, that are also frustrated.

“It’s the criminality that’s associated - or associated itself - with paramilitary organisations that remains a huge problem for any successful transformation.”

Although there have been previous high-profile statements aimed at distancing loyalism from criminal activity, the think tank report urges the paramilitary groups to reaffirm “a categorical rejection of all criminality and working with criminal justice agencies and the police to better hold those involved in crime to account, and to prevent the emergence of new groups”.

Meanwhile, Dr Kyle, who joined the UUP in 2022 before standing down as a Belfast councillor last year, questioned the continuing role of the LCC, which was founded in 2015.

“It was established with considerable purpose and justification to address the issue of the groups’ transitioning,” he said.

“The fact that it has been in existence for nine years and the paramilitary groups still exist does raise questions. As well as advocating for working class communities, they were also charged with overseeing the transition of paramilitary organisations, and it seems to me that has stalled.”

Dr Kyle also urged people to view the “outstanding” RTÉ documentary David Ervine: The Lust for Peace.

“It really underscores the importance of the work carried out in the 90s by David and Gusty, in bringing the conflict to an end.”