‘It’s not too late to get vaccinated' - Expert warns full impact of flu spike could continue for weeks

FLU cases are likely to keep the health service under increased pressure for weeks, an expert has warned.

Dr Connor Bamford, a virologist at Queen’s University, said flu cases appeared to have peaked - but a delayed effect meant the full impact was yet to be felt.

The latest figures from the Public Health Agency showed a slight drop in new cases from 924 in week 52 to 702 in the first week of January.

Caution on these figures was advised, however, as schools and many workplaces had been closed.

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“What we’ve seen in recent weeks is an increased burden on an already strained health system,” said Dr Bamford.

“We think this is being driven by respiratory infections. There’s lots of them around every year, but the main making the most trouble is the influenza virus.

“This comes around every year, although it did go away during the Covid restrictions.

“But since 2021 it’s been around. This season, it seems to be making life much more difficult in healthcare settings, bringing more people into hospital and making it harder for them to leave as soon as they would like.”

He explained that of four main kinds of influenza virus, one of them was driven to “extinction” during the coronavirus pandemic, meaning current vaccines protect against the remaining three.

“There’s only one that’s circulating to high levels in the UK and presumably in Northern Ireland, the H1N1 strain,” he said.

“That’s been around since the swine flu pandemic of 2019, so this is the same strain.

“In general we think this is a better strain to dominate because vaccination tends to work much better.

“In theory, this should be an easier one to protect against but it’s worked out as one of the worst flu seasons we’ve seen in nearly seven years.”

He said it was still to early to know the impact of low vaccine uptake among parts of the population.

“We know the vaccines aren’t perfect, but they reduce the chance of you getting infected and passing on more severe illness.”

With high uptake among school children, he said reports of low vaccine numbers among health and social care workers were concerning.

On warnings from hospital consultant David Farren, that a collision of different flu strains could lead to “disaster,” he said that at the very least more disruption could be expected.

“We’re drawing attention to influenza A viruses, in particular the H1N1 strain,” he said.

“But there are other kinds, another A type- H3N2 – that is circulating at a much lower level.

“There’s a B type also circulating at a lower level. So you do see when one of the strains peaks and comes down, that allows the other strains to rise.

“The latest data does look like we’ve hit the peak, but we have schools coming back and it might go back up again.

“In the next couple of weeks the other flu viruses could be coming up. We know that RSV, the other big virus, is probably on its way out.

“The HNPV virus is popping up and we’ve had a really quiet Covid season.

“This could be why influenza has been allowed to spread. What I’ll be looking at in the next couple of weeks and months is if another Covid wave arrives.

“So things may not get back to normal as quickly as we’d like.”

Asked whether people had let their guard down, he said: “Things that we’ve learned during the pandemic would be useful here. Not enough people are getting vaccinated. It’s the single best thing that an individual can do.

“But it’s not just something you can vaccinate your way out of. In particular, air hygiene.

“Everybody appreciates water hygiene safety with the Lough Neagh crisis. But we should have the same kind of mentality for air.

“Not getting too close to people, opening windows and meeting outside. Also wearing a mask, especially if you’re working close to vulnerable people.”