Hospital consultant warns ‘disaster’ looming for struggling health service if flu levels continue to escalate

A hospital consultant has said the health service in Northern Ireland could be headed for “disaster” if current winter flu levels continue to rise.

Dr David Farren, who chairs the BMA’s Northern Ireland Consultants Committee, told The Irish News that the pressure on the health service was getting consistently worse every year.

According to the latest figures, 374 people were waiting more than 12 hours in emergency departments across the north by midnight on Tuesday, with 383 waiting for admission to a hospital bed.

“It’s been hectic, it’s been unprecedented. Every winter we think it can’t get much worse, but every winter it gets a little bit worse,” Dr Farren said.

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“We have very high demand on our emergency departments, overcrowded wards and staff that are demoralised and trying to do the best they can.

“But there isn’t the space, there isn’t the resource and to be honest there isn’t the energy.”

Working as a medical microbiologist in the Antrim Area Hospital, he said the long waits meant patients were often considerably worse by the time he treated them.

“We are routinely hearing of people waiting up to five days, and this has been the case for months and years,” he said.

“We know every winter we will be hit by winter viruses. This year we’re having a bad flu season and the numbers have been escalating rapidly since the middle of December.”

While hopeful that Flu A virus numbers were starting to fall, he said Flu B (a milder strain more common in children) levels were increasing.

“Normally it doesn’t rise as high as Flu A, but when you superimpose both flu peaks on top of each other it could be another disaster.”

On Tuesday, the Health Minister Mike Nesbitt attended an emergency meeting of the Stormont health committee where the measures he announced included flu vaccinations for the over 50s.

“He’s saying all the right things,” said Dr Farren.

“We do need more investment, more concentration on getting people out of hospitals and into social care or at home with a social care package.

“But, again, we’ve said this for years and we’ve failed to resource these adequately.

“This needs to be the shot across the bows, that we can’t limp through another year and decide not to fund services.”

During Tuesday’s committee meeting, Northern Ireland’s Director of Public Health – Dr Joanne McClean – also highlighted the “really disappointing” uptake of flu jabs among healthcare staff and vulnerable people.

This included a 6.4% vaccine uptake among home care workers and 18% among health and social care workers overall.

“Any support that we can get from elected representatives encouraging people to come forward is great, because…while we do think we have reached and just passed the peak, we still have a fair bit to run on this flu season,” she said.

She also said that colleagues across the UK and Ireland all reported “less enthusiasm” about vaccination.

A higher uptake in Northern Ireland was reported in the over 65s (71.2%), care home residents (almost 80%), but was lower at (40%) for under-65s with underlying health conditions.

In addition, over 100,000 children in primary schools, almost 60,000 children in post-primary schools, and more than 2,360 pregnant women have also been vaccinated.

Meanwhile, a top NHS doctor in England warned the peak of the flu season was yet to come as hospitals are “full to bursting,” including 5,000 patients with flu.

Professor Julian Redhead, NHS clinical director for urgent and emergency care, said several trusts had declared critical incidents and one patient was forced to wait 50 hours before being admitted to a ward.

Prof Redhead added that while there is “some evidence” the flu season may be peaking, the combination of schools returning and cold weather was likely to put extra pressure on emergency services.