New research points to growing anti-immigration sentiment across Northern Ireland.
People who don’t believe immigration has been positive for the regional economy and society far outnumber those who do, the 2024 Northern Ireland General Election Survey reveals.
But a former academic involved in creating a welcoming environment for refugees and asylum-seekers in Belfast said that while the findings are “alarming at an abstract level” he believes a majority of the population are welcoming of ethnic minorities.
The latest Economic and Social Research Council-funded research, published exclusively by The Irish News, shows little more than one fifth of those surveyed (21.1%) agree that immigration has made a positive contribution to the north’s economy and society, compared to 56.6% who disagree.
The period over which the data was gathered included August’s racist violence on the streets of Belfast.
Businesses belonging to foreign nationals in the south of city were attacked by mobs in the aftermath of anti-immigration protests.
The protests followed similar violent gatherings in England in the wake of July’s murder of three young girls in Southport.
The research carried out between July 19-August 27 appears to run counter to the latest Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey, which found views on migration were “largely inclusivist”.
Published in June this year and based on data collected the previous year, the NILT found that 72% of people believe migrant workers are good for the economy.
But according to the latest research, anti-immigration sentiment is greater than it was five years ago.
When respondents were asked in a corresponding 2019 survey whether immigration had been positive for the north’s economy and society, 44.6% disagreed – almost 12 percentage points less than this year.
The survey shows that the 65+ age group is most sceptical about immigration’s positive impact (62.4%), while fewer 18-25 year-olds (49.4%) disagree.
Marginally more Catholics (20.3%) than Protestants (18%) view immigration positively though more than half of both disagree that it has been positive.
Those identifying as ‘Ulster’ include the highest proportion of respondents disagreeing with the assertion that immigration has been positive (69%), compared to ‘Irish’ (57%); ‘British’ (64%); and ‘NI’ (41.4%).
Northern Ireland generally has low rates of immigration. The 2021 census showed about 6% of the population had been born outside Britain or Ireland.
Almost 97% of people described their ethnicity as white.
Paul Nolan, a retired Queen’s University academic and founding member of Belfast City of Sanctuary, a group that aims to create a welcoming environment for refugees, asylum-seekers and what is termed “new communities”, said he believes a majority of the population view immigration positively.
“There is no doubt there is an increase in the visibility of racism and anti-immigration sentiment, as we saw with August’s riots which has created an atmosphere of fear, but that is countered by many other demonstrations of solidarity with ethnic minority communities. These figures are alarming at an abstract level but I don’t believe they represent the full picture,” he said.
“There are clearly negative consequences from racist behaviour and many of the victims of the August’s violence have decided to leave Northern Ireland as a result. If that continues and fewer people from overseas choose to settle here, it will be a disaster for our health service and other parts of our economy and public services. I think it’s important that message is reinforced by our political leaders.”
:: The 2024 Northern Ireland General Election survey was conducted among a representative sample of 2,034 participants, with fieldwork undertaken by Social Market Research Belfast between July 19-August 27 2024. The margin or error is 3.1+/–.
