It’s that time of year again when the crystal ball comes out and economists and analysts look ahead to what lies in store.
While 2024 began with caution and concern, what materialised won’t look too bad in the history books.
The housing market ended 2024 on a strong note, with renewed confidence and activity driving momentum, which we hope to see continuing this year.
The latest PropertyPal report indicated that during the last quarter of 2024, there was an 11% increase in home sales compared to the same period in 2023.
Similarly, the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Ulster Bank survey reported that through December, a net balance of 19% of respondents noted a rise in sales.
This increase was supported by a 12% rise in newly listed properties for sale on PropertyPal, with 4,527 homes added to the market during the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024.
House prices have also risen, with the average home in Northern Ireland now costing around £221,000, an increase of over 6% year-on-year.
The rental sector continues to face challenges, with a typical property approximately £940 per month.
This marks a 9% increase over the past year, with rents steadily rising across all regions and property types.
The increase is driven by sustained demand and a chronic undersupply of properties.
Rental stock availability has grown by just 1% year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing supply constraints.
Despite the challenges, there are encouraging signs of growing market engagement.
Early indicators suggest a promising start to Q1 2025. Visitors to the PropertyPal website are up 20%, engaged audience search time has increased by 3% and enquiries to agents have risen by 6%.
Overall, the year ahead looks more positive.
Demand appears strong, sales activity is showing improvement and economic conditions are stabilising.
This should provide a foundation for relative stability, with modest price growth of 3-5% and transaction levels forecast at around 25,000, in line with long-term averages.
There are a number of key themes to watch this year, including interest rates and lender competition as mortgage rates are expected to soften gradually.
Intense lender competition, particularly for re-mortgage business, will present opportunities, even if average rates remain modest.
When it comes to supply, although sales stock has improved, rental listings remain weak and housebuilding is still below long-term averages.
The recently published Housing Supply Strategy is expected to play an important role in addressing supply shortages across all tenures.
In April, revisions to Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) for Northern Ireland and England are expected.
While the local impact may be limited, these changes could influence wider UK market trends, with potential knock-on effects here.
In summary, the Northern Ireland housing market heads into 2025 with renewed momentum.
Demand appears strong, sales activity is improving and economic conditions are stabilising. While supply challenges persist, the outlook is for modest growth, increased buyer opportunities and a market that continues to improve.
Jordan Buchanan is chief executive of PropertyPal
